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CASMOFOR

verzió: 5.0

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CASMOFOR input help

CASMOFOR - segítség az input mezők kitöltéséhez


Tartalomjegyzék

Input ablakok

A scenáriók általános jellemzőinek definiálása (első input ablak)

Első lépés
   A szcenárió első naptári éve
   Az erdősítési program hossza (években)
   Az alapszcenárió természetes újraerdősüléssel? (I/N)

   
Paraméterek: default (D), felhasználói (U) vagy az időben változók (V)?

Második lépés
   Az erdősítés állandó ütemű? (I/N)
   Fafajok száma (1, 2 vagy 3)
   
Fatermési osztályok száma (1-6)?

   How much soil carbon (tC/ha) is lost on average due to afforestation?
   What is the share of grassland of all land afforested (%)?

   A mortalitás véletlenszerű? (I/N)
 

A szcenáriók konkrét jellemzőinek megadása (második input ablak)
   
Fafajok
   
Erdősítési összes nagysága
   Az éves erdősítés nagysága
   A teljes erdősítés százalékos megoszlása
   Fatermési osztály 
   Százalékos arányszámok
   
Egyéni értékek

Input sheet for the sensitivity/Monte Carlo analysis

For general help on the model, see the main help file here.


Input sheets

In order to run the model, approppriate information must be provided. Three types of information are needed: the definition of the scenarios (e.g. duration of forestation program, is the rate of forestation constant or not etc.), the specifications of the scenarios (e.g. the annual rate of forestation), and the characteristics of the forest at the first year of the run. On input sheet 1, some very general parameters of the scenario(s) are set. Based on some of these parameters, other, more detailed parameters can be set in input sheet 2. All inputs are set in four steps.

Additionally, if you want to run sensitivity analysis, you need to specify its conditions. This setting is done on a separate sheet.


Input sheet one

Step 1

    First calendar year of the simulation

This information is only needed to use it on graphs showing the results. The simulation can start at any calendar year past or future.

   Length of projection

Specify the number of years you want to simulate the carbon dynamics and carbon economics of the afforestation program. The number of years, a maximum of 200 years, will determine the time span for which calculations will be made, and for which output tables and graphs will show the results.

   Name of run

All output will be placed in a fila starting with sim_ and ending with the specific name of the run that you specify here in this box.
 

    Parameters: default (D), user (U), or variable over time (V)?

The model can be run by using either default parameters as included in the model (mainly applicable for Hungary only) or complete sets of parameters that must be defined by the user in the user.xls file. See that file for further details what kind of data need to be set and how. For more information on what kind of parameters CASMOFOR requires, see the description of the model. The "U" and "V" options differe in that whereas constant user values are used in the first case, the user values change over time in the second case. Functions that calculate changing parameter values over scenario years must be defined by the user in the user.xls file. See that file for further details.

Step 2

    Is the rate of afforestation constant over time? (Y/N)

Increasing forest area can happen in two ways: either at a fix rate over the years and species, or in either a non-linear manner over time, or linearly over time, but not accross species, or at a varying rate accross both time and species.

In the first case, the user must only set, in the second input sheet, the overall rate and, in this input sheet right below, the length of the afforestation program. Note that the rate must be constant not only over time, but also accross species.

In all other cases, the user must type in the area of afforestations for each year of the scenario in the user.xls file. (If this has not been done, the user must quit from this program, load user.xls, type in the figures in Table 2, then rerun the program.)

    Number of species

CASMOFOR can handle forest stands consisting of maximum three tree species in one batch. Here you must specify how many species will be used. You can not only specify three different species, but you can also select the same species maximum three times. This can be done if, e.g., you want to compare several afforestation programs where the distribution of forest area by yield class is different.

Selecting the species themselves is done by using of the roll-down menus on the second input sheet.

    Number of yield classes

CASMOFOR can handle forest stands that are classified into one of the six yield classes that are used to assess the growth of the trees. The distribution of the forest, or the afforested area, by yield classes can either be done by typing in the overall ratios, in percent of the total area, on the second input sheet, if the rate is constant over the afforestation period, or in the user.xls file, if the rate changes from year to year.

Note that it is not necessary to have forest in each yield class. If you have forest or forestation only in one, two, three, four or five yield classes, zero(s) must be typed in for the area of those classes. Note also that if only you select here one yield class, the program will use the data for the fourth yield class for each species. To provide forest area for one yield class only, select here any number greater than one, and, on input sheet 2, write zeros in all yield classes except for the one in which you have all your forest (and put there 100 for 100 percent).

   How much soil carbon (tC/ha) is lost on average due to afforestation?

When conducting an afforestation, soil is usually disturbed. This is often needed to get rid of weeds, to break up compacted soil, to open up soil to insert seeds or saplings into the soil, and to help seeds to germinate, and saplings to get access to the nutrients and the water of the soil. However, some of the organic matter in the soil gets in contact with oxigen-containing air, oxidizes, and is emitted to air. CASMOFOR allows the user to include this loss in the simulation. However, the extent of this loss is usually not know, so cannot be modelled. Therefore, the user is asked to enter a value that may be potentially emitted. If you are not sure how much is to be entered here, leave this cell empty. In this case, however, your net carbon removal estimate may be overestimated.

   What is the share of grassland of all land afforested (%)?

When grassland is converted to forest, come of the carbon is the soil is permanently lost. This loss is simulated by the model for each ha of grassland converted. To enable the model to correctly simulate this loss, the user must provide an approximate share (in %) of grassland of all area afforested.

    Is mortality randomly generated? (Y/N)

As it is detailed at the description of the model, mortality, i.e. the senescence of trees due to various causes, is highly variable mainly due to the highly variable nature of the trees' environment. This year-to-year variability can only be modelled by using probability functions and random numbers. Whereas it is enough to use probability functions to model density-dependent mortality, density-independent mortality can only be approximated if the mortality rate randomly changed from year to year. This can be achieved by selecting a random number for each year, which is used to calculate the mortality rate. If random mortality is deselected, then it is supposed that only density dependent mortality occurs in the stands, which is independent of the variable environment. See more about mortality here.
 

Input sheet two

Step 3

    Length of afforestation program (yr)

This is the length of period, in years, during which afforestations are made. This information is necessary to be set only if the afforestation rate is constant, otherwise this is inherently set when the user provides the afforestation rate for each year of the afforestation program.

The length of this period is not necessariliy equal to the length of the scenarios, rather, it can be longer than that.

    Rate of annual afforestations

If you selected, on input sheet 1, that the rate of afforestation is constant over the afforestation period, you must set this rate here. This rate is equal to the total area, in ha, that is afforested each year, all species included.

Step 4

    Species

Under this item, you can see so many roll-down menus (1-3) that you specified on input sheet 1 under "Number of species?" above. Please select one species from each roll-down menu.

    Distribution of forest area

If you selected the linear rate of afforestation, and typed it in, and also selected the number of species and yield classes, here you must set the distribution of the annual afforestation by species and yield class in percents. Note that you do not need to have forest in each species and yield class. You only have to make sure that the sum of the percents for all species and yield classes is 100.

    Yield class

Yield class is one of (usually) six classes that reflects that site quality (e.g. availability of water and nutrient for the roots in the soil by time and space) considerably affects how much biomass can be produced by the trees of a species. Yield class one refers to the best site and the best performance of the species (in terms of yield), whereas yield class six refers to the poorest site and the poorest performance of the species. See details here.

    Ratio values

These are percent values of the afforested area for each species and yield class. See details here.
   

Sensitivity / Monte Carlo analysis

For this analysis, two types of data can be entered. One is the possible error of the various variables, and the other is whether this error is assumed random or as a systematic error, i.e. bias.

If the error is to be assumed random, then standard deviation of the assumed error distribution of the various variables of the model by species must be entered. There are three columns on this sheet to enter this data by species, and, for each variable, the assumed or measured standard deviation of the error of the variable can be entered in each column. The number must be in percent, and be a positive number. If the error to be analysed is a bias, then the number to be entered is the assumed size of the error in percent, positive or negative.

It is the fourth column for each variable is to tell the model if the values in the first three columns are random errors, or biases. If this column (with green cells) is left empty or contains 0 for a variable, it means that random errors are assumed. On the other hand, if the number 1 is entered for a variable, it means that the error is assumed to be a bias.

Care must be taken to provide realistic values for the analysis, otherwise either the program will not run or not run correctly, or the calculated values will be realistic.


A weblapot utoljára Somogyi Zoltán módosította 2016. március 4-én.

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